European Economic Forecast Autumn 2012

Nonetheless, a resurgent aggravation of the sovereign-debt crisis with grave consequences for growth and financial stability remains the largest downside risk. This remains intrinsically linked to the risk of slippage or delay with the implementation of policy measures agreed at EU/euro-area and Member-State levels. A downside risk also stems from labour markets, where a deeper drop in employment would weigh on growth prospects going forward. On the external side, the baseline of a soft patch in global GDP growth could be challenged by a sharper-than-expected slowdown in emerging market economies or the materialisation of...
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European Economic Forecast Autumn 2012