Fuzzy reasoning house of risk to manage supply chain risk in wooden toys industries

House of Risk Method is used to identify the most potential risk agents, while the fuzzy reasoning risk assessment model is used to determine the risk severity by risk agents. Based on the analysis, it is found that risk agent stock out of the product is the most potential risk agent in this industry. To reduce the impact, mitigation strategies are suggested for stock out product risk agents in warehouse are flexible supply base, safety stock, internal coordination, as well as create and control production schedules.
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Fuzzy reasoning house of risk to manage supply chain risk in wooden toys industries 462Int. J Sup. Chain. Mgt Vol. 8, No.5, October 2019 Fuzzy Reasoning House of Risk to ManageSupply Chain Risk in Wooden Toys Industries Widya Nurcahayanty Tanjung#1, Selma Intan Praditya Sari Himawan#2, Syarif Hidayat#3, Endang Ripmiatin*4, Selvy Sekar Asti#5, Ratu Siti Khodijah#6, Saaras Ayu Atikah#7 # Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Al Azhar Indonesia University, Indonesia * Informatics Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Al Azhar Indonesia University, Indonesia 1widya@uai.ac.id, 2himawanselma@gmail.comAbstract— The research was done in wooden toy the concept framework of SCRM consists of 4industry which have complex supply chain. Because of stages of identifying risks, conducting risktheir complexity, there will be a lot of risks attached to assessments, mitigating and monitoring. Variousit. Risks factor which can be identified in this business methods have been developed in the managementare out of stock product and human factor. To assess of supply chain risks such as qualitative,the risks, a new method is developed to eliminate quantitative-analytic, and quantitative-empiricalsubjective factors from decision makers. The proposedmethod is Fuzzy Reasoning House of Risk (FHOR). methods. The most widely used method isThis method is combination of fuzzy reasoning risk quantitative-analytic method, then qualitativeassessment model and house of risk which can be method, and the least used method is quantitative-contribute to enrich risk assessment methodology. empirical method and there are only about 40House of Risk Method is used to identify the most articles that develop quantitative method Integratedpotential risk agents, while the fuzzy reasoning risk [8]. The self-integrated quantitative method is aassessment model is used to determine the risk severity combination of two quantitative methods usedby risk agents. Based on the analysis, it is found that simultaneously to solve problems in supply chainrisk agent stock out of the product is the most potential risk management. With the development andrisk agent in this industry. To reduce the impact,mitigation strategies are suggested for stock out product implementation of these SCRM methods at arisk agents in warehouse are flexible supply base, safety strategic level will have a significant positivestock, internal coordination, as well as create and impact on its users [9].control production schedules. Supply Chain Risk Management is a blend ofKeywords—Fuzzy Reasoning, House of Risk, Supply the concept of Supply Chain Management withChain, Risk, Wooden toys industries. Risk Management. The risks to the supply chain can be defined as a place of events caused by an imbalance between demand and supply. Supply chain disruptions can lead to problems such as lead time, stock out, inability to meet customer demand,1. Introduction and increased costs [3][4]. The magnitude of riskAll of activities occurr in the supply chain is can be measured by considering two fundamentalpotentially at risk. Some examples of supply chain parameters of risk, namely the possibility of riskrisks are raw material shortages, supplier failures, and risk severity [4]. However, it must be realizedrising raw material prices, engine breakdowns, also that the extent of certain risks is also highlyuncertain demand, inaccurate forecasting, order dependent on many factors involved, such aschanges, and transport failures. The potential human factors, workplace factors, material andincidents of these risks if they actually occured will equipment factors, etc. that are difficult to measurebe impact on the companys supply chain and handle in the traditional way [14]. Given thesemanagement performance [13]. The handling of the factors, the risk assessment should be welldisruptive risks in the supply chain is called Supply considered so that the results obtained from theChain Risk Management (SCRM) [12]. SCRM is assessment can be relied upon. Research usingthe identification and management of risks either in integrated risk management method has been doneinternal and external supply networks through a by many researchers. As the integrated Analyticcoordinated approach between supply chain Network Process (ANP) and Weighted Failuremembers to reduce overall supply chain Mode Effects Analysis (WFMEA) methods arevulnerability [6]. used to identify and analyze the highest risks in the The benefits of SCRM are to identify and cocoa supply chain by Aini [1]. Then the method ofassess i ...