Relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rates: Constant or time-varying?

This paper aims to analyze the intertemporal interaction between crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar trade-weighted exchange rates from January 1997 through December 2012. To this end, the study assumes that the conditional covariance matrix between crude oil and the dollar exchange rate returns follows a bivariate GARCH process. Using daily data, I find strong evidence of a time-varying conditional covariance and correlation between crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rates. If on one day the change in the dollar price of oil is largely due to a change in the dollar’s value, there is a tendency for the next day’s change in oil prices to be primarily caused by changes in the dollar’s value as well. On the other hand, if one day the change in the dollar price of oil is caused primarily by factors other than the dollar’s value, there is a tendency for those to be primarily causes of changes in the dollar price of oil on subsequent days.
Nội dung trích xuất từ tài liệu:
Relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rates: Constant or time-varying?