Research for forecasting the effect of various meteorological-dynamic conditions on the possible spreading of Cs-137 radioactive substances in case a level 7 incident occurs from Fengcheng nuclear power plant (China)

This study is conducted based on the hypothesis of an accident from Fengcheng NPP with an incident level of 7, equivalent to the Fukushima accident. A modeling system has been established with different failure scenarios based on the Delft3D model. The research results will provide more insights into the extent and scope of the incident and the impact of meteorological conditions and dynamics on the propagation and distribution of radiation when an incident occurs.
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Research for forecasting the effect of various meteorological-dynamic conditions on the possible spreading of Cs-137 radioactive substances in case a level 7 incident occurs from Fengcheng nuclear power plant (China) Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Technology 2023, 23(1) 39–55 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Technology journal homepage: vjs.ac.vn/index.php/jmstResearch for forecasting the effect of various meteorological-dynamicconditions on the possible spreading of Cs-137 radioactive substancesin case a level 7 incident occurs from Fengcheng nuclear power plant(China)Nguyen Minh Hai1, Vu Duy Vinh1,*, Nguyen Trong Ngo2, Tran Quang Thien21 Institute of Marine Resources and Environment, VAST, Vietnam2 Dalat Nuclear Research Institute, Lam Dong, VietnamReceived: 31 December 2021; Accepted: 30 June 2022ABSTRACTBecause its location is quite close to the Vietnamese border, the future operation of the Fengcheng(Fengcheng) Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) can raise many concerns about the impact on the marineenvironment in case a serious incident occurs. Based on the Delft3D modeling toolkit, calculation scenariosto simulate the spreading of Cs-137 radioactive emission when a level 7 incident occurs at Fengcheng NPPhave been set up according to different dynamic/meteorological conditions presented at the time of incidents(during the Northeast monsoon, transitional monsoon, or Southwest monsoon) to assess/predict thepossibility of radioactive emission and to spread, and their affecting the waters of Vietnam. The simulationresults show that when a level 7 incident occurs from Fengcheng NPP, the area of influence might be theentire East Sea after 3–6 months. The Gulf of Tonkin area would be contaminated with high radiation levels(300–350 Bq/m3) after about one month. The radiation would then gradually decrease to less than 150 Bq/m3after one year and below 30 Bq/m3 after two years. The impacts of various dynamical and meteorologicalconditions on the ability to spread and disperse radioactive substances when an incident occurs are onlyevident in the early stages (up to 3 months after the incident). After this time, the contaminated area wouldcover almost the entire coastal strip of Vietnam due to a large amount of radiation, and the effects ofdifferent dynamic/meteorological conditions would be irregular.Keywords: Delft3D, Fangchenggang, nuclear power plant, Cs-137 radioactive emission.*Corresponding author at: Institute of Marine Resources and Environment, 246 Da Nang, Ngo Quyen, Hai Phong,Vietnam. E-mail addresses: vinhvd@imer.vast.vnhttps://doi.org/10.15625/1859-3097/15964ISSN 1859-3097; e-ISSN 2815-5904/© 2023 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST) 39 Nguyen Minh Hai et al./Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Technology 2023, 23(1) 39–55INTRODUCTION when an incident occurs, UPZ) from 15–30 km; extended planning distances (EPD) at less than Although the highest safety standards must 100 km and cargo and food planning distancesalways be followed, the operation of nuclear (ICPD) less than 300km. Thus, Quang Ninhpower plants (NPPs) is always a cause for and some northern provinces of Vietnam areserious concern because if something goes also in the EPD and ICPD regions relative towrong, the consequences can be severe, not Fengcheng NPP, and Vietnam needs to prepareonly for the ecological environment but also for contingency plans. Although there are manyhuman life and health. Therefore, the concerns about the effects of a radioactiveassessment and prediction of the possibility of incident from Chinas nuclear power plants onthe impact and the mechanism of transmission our waters, scientific studies on these effectsand distribution of radioactive substances when are very few, especially quantitative researchan incident occurs are critical in providing on the scope and extent of impact if an incidentscientific information on the possibility of the occurs [8]. This study is conducted based onimpact if an incident occurs, as well as the hypothesis of an accident from Fengchengimproving the method of assessment and NPP with an incident level of 7, equivalent toprediction of radioactive propagation in the sea. the Fukushima accident. A modeling system Among the approaches, modeling is a has been established with different failurewidely used direction in the study and scenarios based on the Delft3D model. Thepredictio ...