Trading Strategies for the Global Stock, Bond, Commodity, and Currency Markets_7

Tham khảo tài liệu trading strategies for the global stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets_7, tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư chứng khoán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả
Nội dung trích xuất từ tài liệu:
Trading Strategies for the Global Stock, Bond, Commodity, and Currency Markets_7 STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS 233232 INTERMARKET ANALYSIS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE One is that technical analysis of bonds, stocks, and commodities can play aSTOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS role in economic analysis. Another is that the rotational nature of the three markets, as pictured in Figure 13.1, is confirmed. Bonds turn first (17 months in advance),Stocks and commodities also qualify as leading indicators of the business cycle, stocks second (seven months in advance), and commodities third (six months inalthough their warnings are much snorter than those of bonds. Research provided advance). That rotational sequence of bonds, stocks, and commodities turning in orderby Dr. Moore (in collaboration with Victor Zarnowitz and John P. Cullity) in the is maintained at both peaks and troughs. In all three markets, the lead at peaks is muchpreviously-cited work on Leading Indicators for the 1990s provides us with lead longer than at troughs. The lead time given at peaks by bonds can be extremely longand lag times for all three sectors—bonds, stocks, and commodities—relative to turns (27 months on average) while commodities provide a very short warning at troughsin the business cycle, supporting the rotational process described in Figure 13.1. (two months on average). The lead time for commodities may vary depending on the In the eight business cycles since 1948, the S&P 500 stock index led turns by an commodity or commodity index used. Moore favors the Journal of Commerce Indexaverage of seven months, with a nine-month lead at peaks and five months at troughs. which he helped create. (Figures 13.5 through 13.8 demonstrate the rotational natureCommodity prices (represented by the Journal of Commerce Index) led business cycleturns by an average of six months, with an eight-month lead at peaks and two months of bonds, stocks, and commodities from 1986 to early 1990.)at troughs. Several conclusions can be drawn from these numbers. FIGURE 13.6 A COMPARISON OF THE DOW JONES BOND AVERAGE, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER-FIGURE 13.5 AGE, AND THE CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX DURING 1987 AND 1988. THREE MAJOR PEAKSA COMPARISON OF THE DOW JONES BOND AVERAGE, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER- CAN BE SEEN IN THE NORMAL ROTATIONAL SEQUENCE-BONDS FIRST, STOCKS SECOND,AGE, AND GOLD DURING 1987. THE THREE MARKETS PEAKED DURING 1987 IN THE CORRECT AND COMMODITIES LAST. ALTHOUGH THE CRB INDEX DIDNT PEAK UNTIL MID-1988, GOLDROTATION-BONDS FIRST (DURING THE SPRING), STOCKS SECOND (DURING THE SUMMER), TOPPED OUT SIX MONTHS EARLIER AND PLAYED ITS USUAL ROLE AS A LEADING INDICATORAND GOLD LAST (IN DECEMBER). GOLD CAN RALLY FOR A TIME ALONG WITH BONDS AND OF COMMODITIES.STOCKS BUT PROVIDES AN EARLY WARNING OF RENEWED INFLATION PRESSURES. Dow Jones Bond Averages versus Dow Stocks versus Commodities Dow Jones Bond Average versus Dow Stocks versus Gold 234 INTERMARKET ANALYSIS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE COPPER AS AN ECONOMIC INDICA ...