THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFAULT RISK AND INTEREST RATES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY RESEARCH INSIGHT

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Understanding the relationship between credit and interest rate risk is critical to many applications in finance, from valuation of credit and interest rate-sensitive instruments to risk management. This study empirically examines the relationship between interest rates and default risk using firm level corporate default data in the United States between 1982 and 2008. We find significant negative contemporaneous correlations between the changes in short interest rates and aggregate default rates, with a particularly strong relationship around financial crises. We also explore the explanatory power of interest rate variables in predicting default when conditioned on Moody’s KMV EDF™ credit measures....
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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFAULT RISK AND INTEREST RATES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY RESEARCH INSIGHT